Exploring Leading Indicators of Satellite Maneuvers in Geosynchronous Orbit

In today's rapidly evolving space environment, Space Domain Awareness (SDA) has become pivotal for ensuring the safety and security of space operations. With the increasing number of satellites and growing concerns over adversarial behaviors, timely detection of maneuvers is crucial for ensuring strategic advantage in space. This study assesses the feasibility of electro-optical (EO) ground sensors in detecting pre-maneuver photometric changes to use as leading indicators of satellite maneuvers. By leveraging real-world geosynchronous satellite data, we explore whether measurable changes in photometric characteristics could serve as early warnings for orbital maneu-vers. Our study sought to investigate Bayesian online change point detection as a statistical method for real-time anomaly detection. Our findings reveal that while EO sensors can detect abrupt photometric changes, there are a number of challenges that limit their predictive potential, including observation gaps, differences between propulsion systems, and confounding factors. The increasing economic and strategic importance of Earth's most congested orbits highlights the need for advanced automated SDA techniques. By evaluating the potential for EO sensors to provide early indications of satellite maneuver, this study supports the development of faster and more accurate satellite maneuver detection systems.