The Cost of Delivery Delays

The rise in supply disruptions after COVID-19 affected businesses across the United States. Yet, measures of disruptions or delays are difficult to estimate. Here, we provide a model-based measure of delays using aggregate manufacturing inventory data and study their economic cost. We find an increase of 21 days in the average US import shipping delay from 2018 to 2024. Our estimated delivery delays are consistent with changes in the lead times reported in the data. The rise in delays has associated output costs of 2.6 percent and a 0.4 percent increase in prices.