Ecological synergy of solar development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: a decade of ecosystem service change assessment at Talatan Solar Park

Abstract The widespread installation of photovoltaic panels supports the energy transition but also impacts ecosystem services (ESs) by altering their structure, processes, and functions. While many studies rely on remote sensing-based ecological indices, biophysical modeling of ESs remains limited, despite its importance for guiding sustainable solar farm development and regional ecological security. This study used process-based ES models, spatiotemporal trend analysis, and the propensity score matching method to assess changes in carbon sequestration (CS), sand fixation (SF), and soil retention (SR) around the world’s largest Talatan solar farms across pre-construction, construction, and post-construction phases (2011–2020). The main results were as follows: (1) From 2011 to 2020, CS, SF, and SR within the solar farm increased by 71.1%, 81.4%, and 32.1%, respectively, indicating an overall enhancement following construction. In the post-construction phase, the increase in CS was more pronounced within the solar farms, while improvements in SF and SR were greater in the surrounding buffer zone. (2) When focusing on the solar farms’ impact, both SF and SR exhibited clear thresholds around 400–500 m during construction and post-construction phases, while CS showed spatial differentiation mainly after construction, indicating that the most pronounced positive impacts were confined within this range. (3) Environmental factor including soil moisture index and land surface temperature were found to significantly influence these trends, reflecting the changes in ESs primarily driven by water and thermal conditions. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating both temporal and spatial perspectives when assessing the ecological impacts of solar energy development, to better guide future projects towards optimizing ecosystem benefits.