Spatial mapping of dengue incidence with climate factors at district levels in Bangladesh

This study investigates the spatial distribution of dengue incidence in Bangladesh and its correlation with climate factors at the district level. Data from the Institute for Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), and Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) were used. Poisson, zero-inflated, and negative binomial models were employed, with the negative binomial regression model selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. Spatial mapping revealed varying dengue incidence across districts, with higher transmission in specific areas. Temperature and rainfall significantly influenced dengue incidence. Notably, increases in minimum temperature were associated with higher dengue cases in districts such as Kurigram and Chapainawabganj. A negative relation was observed between maximum temperature and dengue cases (e.g. for Dhaka District, Exp(β) = 0.24, (95% CI: 0.14, 0.40)), while rainfall's impact varied by region, with notably increasing cases in Khulna (Exp(β) = 1.05, (95% CI: 1.04, 1.06)), Madaripur (Exp(β) = 1.28, (95% CI: 1.25, 1.31)), and Satkhira (Exp(β) = 1.15, (95% CI: 1.14, 1.16)). The study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial and climate factors into prevention efforts, aiding in proactive district-level strategies to mitigate dengue's public health burden in Bangladesh.