COMPARATIVE STUDY OF EXTREME SEA LEVEL PREDICTIONS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Extreme Sea Levels (ESL) pose a threat to the world’s coastline, more recurrent coastal flooding can be expected on rised mean sea level, and global warming might intensify and increase the duration of storms (Kirezci et al. 2020). If no adaptation measures are implemented, coastal communities will face increased risks to infrastructure, property, and human safety. The expected changes in future climate will cause an increase in the extent of damage at low-elevation coastal zones (IPCC 2021; Kron 2013), resulting in annual damages reaching nearly 10percent of the global gross domestic product by the year 2100 (Wahl et al. 2017). Therefore, assessing potential changes in coastal flood risk and developing adaptation strategies is essential. In this regard, accurate prediction of ESL plays a critical role in adapting coastal areas to climate change. Regional Extreme Sea Levels, which are composed of mean sea level, tides, storm surges and waves, are driven by basin-scale meteorological conditions (pressure and wind), and bathymetry/topography. The changing climate, with the high influence of global warming, has a significant impact on meteorological characteristics and sea level rise at several spatial and temporal scales (Hinkel et al. 2014). However, although substantial research efforts have been dedicated to quantifying future global and regional sea level rise (SLR) projections and their associated uncertainties, the same does not apply to ESL. Therefore, accurate high- resolution prediction of ESL and coastal inundation underpin the quantification of the risks on coastlines, help decision-makers pinpoint the geographical areas at higher flood risk, and facilitate mitigation strategies (Ward et al. 2015).