Determinants of Children's Preparedness for Primary Education in Djibouti: An Empirical Analysis Using IDELA Assessment

School readiness is a foundational predictor of long-term academic success and socio-economic mobility. In Djibouti, disparities in early learning outcomes reflect unequal preschool access, household-level differences, and regional disparities in service provision. This research addresses three questions: (1) What are the levels of school readiness across key developmental domains? (2) Which child-, household-, and region-level factors influence school readiness outcomes? (3) How do these outcomes vary across socio-economic and geographic groups? Drawing on data from 1,155 children aged 5-6 assessed through the International Development and Early Learning Assessment (IDELA), this research employs a multilevel mixed-effects model to estimate the effects of preschool attendance, caregiver engagement, and institutional context across four domains: literacy, numeracy, socio-emotional development, and physical development. The conceptual framework integrates Ecological Systems Theory, Human Capital Theory, and the Cumulative Risk Model to examine the interplay between home, school, and structural environments. Preschool attendance is the strongest predictor of literacy outcomes, associated with a 9.05-point gain (p < 0.001). Father’s participation in home literacy adds 2.64 points (p = 0.015), while the presence of a preschool-enrolled sibling contributes 3.92 points (p = 0.018). No statistically significant gender-based differences were found (p = 0.381). Parental education and behavioral engagement show strong positive associations with literacy and numeracy performance. Public school students score lower in numeracy than peers in private institutions (p < 0.05). Regional disparities are substantial. Preschool attendees in Djibouti-Ville score an average of 99.7, compared to 72.9 in Dikhil and 75.6 in Obock. Children in Tadjourah score 6.90 points lower than those in Ali-Sabieh (p = 0.026). Findings highlight the need for integrated policy reforms that expand equitable access, improve instructional quality, and strengthen parental engagement. Data-driven, multisectoral strategies will enhance school readiness and support Djibouti’s broader development goals.