Energy resource development in the DRC: A scenario planning for hydroelectric potential development by 2050 based on OSeMOSYS

Energy planning is a privileged scientific tool, enabling quantified analyses of the energy future of countries or regions of the world. These analyses provide a scientific basis for energy policies and implementation strategies. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite its considerable hydroelectric potential, makes little use of its resources due to various challenges, leaving a large part of the population without access to electricity, which hampers community and economic development. This article analyzes the opportunities for developing the hydroelectric potential of the DRC up to 2050. Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System), prospective modelling was carried out to assess the technical, economic and environmental impacts of an ambitious energy scenario centered on hydropower (Scenario HYDRO). The study develops an energy modelling approach for the DRC, considering demand, supply and energy policies, based on reliable data and aimed at optimizing the use of resources, in particular hydroelectric potential. The results indicate a potential installed capacity of 23 GW by 2050, dominated by hydropower (83%). This scenario meets the growing needs of national electrification, with 70% of the energy designated for the residential sector. The study highlights a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, estimated at 1,229 Mt cumulative by 2050. However, achieving these targets will require around USD 100 billion in investment. The results provide a sound basis for the development of energy policies in the DRC that will promote universal access to sustainable energy, reduce carbon emissions, reduce pressure on forests and ensure energy security. The results of this study recommend massive investment in hydropower, standardization of the electricity sector and improved data collection to achieve universal electrification and significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the DRC by 2050.