PROBABILISTIC SHORELINE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR THE CATALAN COAST (SPAIN): A PCR MODEL APPLICATION

Shoreline change due to climate change poses a significant challenge for the future management of beaches globally. Despite its recognized importance, determining the extent of these coastline changes remains a subject of debate, primarily because a universally accepted, reliable, easy-to-use predictive model is lacking. The Bruun rule, despite its uncertainties, is the most commonly employed model – mainly due to its simplicity. Different alternative models have been proposed, among which the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model (Ranasinghe et al., 2012) is one that has been used in many parts of the world. This physics-based model evaluates coastline recession by considering the combined impacts of storms and SLR in probabilistic terms while allowing beach recovery between storm events.