PROJECTING FUTURE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The Caspian Sea (CS), the world's largest lake, is a hydrologically sensitive water body, with a water level that has been experiencing significant fluctuations. Between 1930 and 1977, the Caspian Sea level (CSL) decreased dramatically by more than 3 m, reaching 29 m below sea level (Baltic datum). Subsequently, from 1977 to 1995, an unexpected CSL rise of approximately 2.5 m (reaching -26.5 m) led to extensive flooding and various challenges in neighboring countries. Following this sharp increase, the CSL gradually decreased, with the current value of about -27.8 m in 2023. The decline in CSL has detrimental effects on naval facilities, ports, fisheries, shipping industries, and power plants. These fluctuations have also affected residential areas, ecosystems, biodiversity, and coastal wetlands, particularly those registered under the Ramsar Convention in 1975. Limited studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on the CSL using either General Climate Models (GCMs) projections or Regional Climate Models (RCMs).