Evaluation of machine learning and deep learning algorithms for fire prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are most common in Southeast Asian (SEA) countries, causing biodiversity loss, habitat destruction, and air pollution. Accurately predicting fire occurrences in SEA remains challenging due to its complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Improved fire predictions enable timely interventions, helping to control and mitigate fires. In this study, we utilize Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models, Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM), and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) to determine the most effective fire prediction model. We evaluated model performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R² (coefficient of determination). Our results indicate that the CNN performs best in regions with strong spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics, like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models, such as Simple Persistence and MLP, showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating various ML and DL models before integrating them into any decision support systems (DSS) for fire management studies. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, prediction accuracy and responsiveness can be enhanced, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.