TSUNAMI EVACUATION SIMULATON OF TOURISTS AND LOCAL RESIDENTS BY USING EXPECTED TSUNAMI OF NANKAI TROUGH EARTHQUAKE

The catastrophic Nankai Trough earthquake is expected to occur between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate with 70-80percent probability of occurring within 30 years from now. Under the worst-case scenario, the earthquake and tsunami are estimated to kill about 320,000 people and cause economic losses amounting to nearly 134 trillion yen. Due to potential catastrophic damage, many of Japanese leading tourist destinations, such as Osaka, Aichi, and Shizuoka prefectures, predicted the estimated inundation area. In the event of a major earthquake, tourists are more likely to be vulnerable to disaster than local residents who can usually check hazard maps and other warning services. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the damage and impact on tourists by using evacuation simulation based on possible catastrophic tsunami disaster. This study also evaluates the impact of the start time of evacuation and congestion on the fatality of tourists. The study location is the town of Shirahama which is tourist spot and is potentially affected by the Nankai trough earthquake tsunami.