Expert opinion versus radiocarbon dating in the ivory trade

All extant elephant species have been protected from excessive international commercial trade by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) since at least 1989. However, legal protection often includes exemptions, such as for antiques, which may create critical loopholes that enable the laundering of modern ivory into legal markets, undermining conservation efforts. This study presents, for the first time, a robust forensic dataset comparing antique expert evaluations of 46 seized ivory artefacts with radiocarbon dating results, demonstrating that the inaccuracy of expert opinions can reach up to 58.7%. These inaccuracies may challenge the enforcement of CITES regulations. In addition, the study compares the legal frameworks of selected countries, revealing that the definition of antique ivory varies significantly across regions. To address this vulnerability, we argue that integrating forensic methods such as radiocarbon dating—combined with other verification techniques—into regulatory practices could drastically improve detection accuracy, closing gaps that currently facilitate illegal trade.