ASSESSING COASTAL HAZARDS WITH SLR AND PREDICTING LONG-TERM SHORELINE CHANGES ALONG BEACH BARRIER SYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE, USA

Coastal barrier systems act as “ecosystem engineers” (EE), naturally adapting to slowly evolving seal level rise (SLR) and wave climate by regressing or transgressing. These systems adjust their morphology in response to short-term storm events and long-term changes in mean sea level and wave climate, maintaining an equilibrium between wave forcing and shoreline morphology. While predicting short-term shoreline changes due to storm events can be done with reasonable accuracy using 2DH hydro-morphodynamic models such as XBeach, predicting long-term changes is more challenging and affected by larger uncertainties. However, both accelerated SLR and more broadly climate change increase the vulnerability of coastal communities, despite even larger uncertainties, and such predictions are becoming increasingly important.