PARAMETERISATION OF CORAL STRESSORS IMPACTING REEF ECO- MORPHODYNAMICS

Anthropogenic climate change is dramatically changing the geometry of coral reefs which has implications for shoreline protection, island formation and ecological stability (Vila‐Concejo and Kench, 2017). By 2100 global mean temperature is predicted to rise a further 0.5oC (4.8oC) and sea level a further 27(67) cm based on RCP scenarios 2.6 (8.5) (IPCC, 2023). Warmer temperatures will increase the frequency of storms and cyclones, which can mechanically disturb coral communities. At the same time, ocean pH will continue to decline due to greater CO2 absorption (IPCC, 2023), leading to losses in coral reef calcification and structural resilience. Due to the narrowing window of coral recover time resulting from a greater frequency and intensity of disturbances, there is a growing concern that coral reefs will undergo a phase shift towards algae-dominated reefs (Tebbett et al., 2022). Due to the ability to attenuate waves, corals play a crucial role in regulating the hydrodynamic energy within reefs. Consequently, phase-shifted reefs will diminish the potential for the coastal protection service that healthy reefs provide. Furthermore, reefs dominated by algae lack the sediment-forming potential seen in coral-dominated reefs, thereby influencing the stability and formation of islands.