Job Creation or Substitution? The Impact of Intelligentization on China’s Manufacturing Employment Market

本文基于中国2012~2022年的省级面板数据，运用最小广义二乘法(FGLS)实证检验智能化对制造业劳动力就业的影响。研究结果表明：我国目前智能化水平与制造业就业总量呈稳定且显著的正相关关系，通过区域异质性分析发现我国东、中、西部地区智能化发展对制造业就业总量的影响主要是创造效应，其中中部地区智能化对就业的创造效应显著高于东部和西部。本研究为理解智能化与制造业就业的关系及区域差异提供了实证依据。Based on provincial panel data from China (2012~2022), this study employs the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method to empirically examine the impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment. The results reveal a stable and significantly positive correlation between China’s current level of intelligentization and total manufacturing employment. Regional heterogeneity analysis indicates that intelligentization development in the eastern, central, and western regions primarily exhibits a job-creating effect, with the central region demonstrating a significantly stronger employment-promoting effect compared to the eastern and western regions. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between intelligentization and manufacturing employment, as well as regional disparities.