Circular Strategic Options for Ethanol Supply Chain Resilience Under Uncertainties Using a Composition of Probabilities Group Decision Model

Background: Brazil’s bioethanol supply chain is vital for global energy security and climate action but remains vulnerable to climate disruptions, market volatility, and conflicting stakeholder interests. While resilience strategies exist, they often overlook the potential of circular economy (CE) principles. Methods: This study proposes an integrated decision-support framework that combines Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA), the Composition of Probabilistic Preferences (CPP), and the Rank-Order Centroid (ROC) method to prioritize CE strategies under uncertainty. The approach incorporates stakeholder input and probabilistic modeling to evaluate 20 alternatives across 10 criteria. Results: The analysis identified climate risk modeling, biogas utilization, and blockchain-enabled traceability as the most effective strategies for improving supply chain resilience. The model demonstrated strong robustness, maintaining 95% consistency in rankings under varied decision-making scenarios. Conclusions: This research presents a novel, structured method for supporting complex decisions in uncertain environments. By integrating CE principles and group decision-making tools, the study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and industry leaders seeking to build more resilient and sustainable bioethanol supply chains.