Trump-Era Tariffs and Their Economic Impact on BRICS Countries; A Strategic Trade Perspective

This study analyses the economic impact of Trump-era tariffs (2018–2020) on BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—using strategic trade theory and a mixed-methods approach. U.S. tariffs under Sections 301 and 232 disrupted global trade, heavily affecting export-reliant BRICS economies. A multiple linear regression model assesses the influence of U.S. trade exposure, inflation, and sectoral composition on GDP outcomes from 2023 to 2025. Results show that countries with greater trade exposure, like China and India, faced sharper GDP contractions, while less-exposed economies like Russia and South Africa experienced milder effects. Qualitative findings highlight strategic adaptations, including trade diversification, domestic industrial policies, and de-dollarization. China increased trade with ASEAN and focused on tech self-reliance; India advanced its “Make in India” initiative; Brazil deepened ties with China; and Russia and South Africa emphasized regional trade. These shifts reflect a broader movement toward a multipolar trade system. The study concludes that tariffs functioned as geopolitical tools, prompting BRICS nations to reduce reliance on Western markets and enhance financial sovereignty. It underscores protectionism’s long-term impact on global economic structures and recommends strengthening regional trade frameworks and building sectoral resilience to better withstand future external shocks.