BASIC STUDY ON A STOCHASTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL MODEL AROUND JAPAN

Coastal disasters and environmental issues are not only influenced by waves and tides but also cannot ignore the impact of rainfall. For example, assessing the simultaneous occurrence risk of storm surge and river floods is important in tide gate operations. There have been many researches on the potential for climate change to alter the intensity and precipitation of tropical cyclones. In the formulation of adaptation strategies, it is necessary to conduct disaster frequency assessments based on a large ensemble of disaster prediction data. In the past studies, the methods for simplified assessment of storm surges through a stochastic tropical cyclone model approach that can statistically generate a large number of tropical cyclone track data has been already proposed. However, the method of corresponding flood risks is not so sufficient. If a method for probabilistically predicting rainfall patterns from tropical cyclone track data could be developed, it could also be applied to real-time forecasting for rainfall disaster risk assessment.