PROBABILISTIC LONG-TERM AND REGIONAL SHORELINE EVOLUTION MODELING USING WAVE CLIMATE EMULATOR

Prediction of long-term (decadal to centennial) shoreline evolution is essential for planning and managing lifecycle performance of erosion protection measures such as groins, breakwaters, and sand nourishment. Probabilistic shoreline change modeling can predict risks and uncertainties of erosion for risk-based coastal protection practice. Due to complex spatiotemporally-varying conditions of beach dynamic processes driven by waves, currents, sediment transport, wave climate changes, and sea level rise, quantifying uncertainties of shoreline changes and risks of extreme erosion by storms and cyclones in a regional (10 to 100 miles-long) coast is a challenge.