Reanalysis Data Sets Underestimate the 1928–29 Summer Precipitation Deficits During the Late‐1920s Megadrought in Northern China

Abstract Numerous tree‐ring and historical records indicate a megadrought in the Loess Plateau (LP) of northern China during 1928–29, yet its dynamical causes remain unclear. This study reconstructs LP summer precipitation from 1901 to 2000 using multiple paleoclimate proxies to assess precipitation and reanalysis data sets. The results show that 1928 and 1929 were the driest and second‐driest years of the twentieth century, with precipitation deficits of 2.96 and 2.25 standard deviations and return periods of 160 and 40 years, respectively. Existing precipitation and reanalysis data sets failed to capture this event due to a lack of reliable observations in the Asian and Pacific regions. More reliable European meteorological data suggest that this event was primarily driven by extreme cold over northern Europe, which triggered eastward‐propagating Rossby waves, inducing high pressure over Mongolia and suppressing ascent over the LP.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-05-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115229
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Reanalysis Data Sets Underestimate the 1928–29 Summer Precipitation Deficits During the Late‐1920s Megadrought in Northern China

Congxi Fang, Jinlei Chen, Qiufang Cai, Changfeng Sun et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Tree-ring climate responses
article

Reanalysis Data Sets Underestimate the 1928–29 Summer Precipitation Deficits During the Late‐1920s Megadrought in Northern China

Congxi Fang, Jinlei Chen, Qiufang Cai, Changfeng Sun, Lu Wang, Meng Ren, Linlin Cui, Qiang Li, Liang Yi, Yu Liu, Huiming Song, Lijun Su, Zhiman Su
article en

Abstract

Abstract Numerous tree‐ring and historical records indicate a megadrought in the Loess Plateau (LP) of northern China during 1928–29, yet its dynamical causes remain unclear. This study reconstructs LP summer precipitation from 1901 to 2000 using multiple paleoclimate proxies to assess precipitation and reanalysis data sets. The results show that 1928 and 1929 were the driest and second‐driest years of the twentieth century, with precipitation deficits of 2.96 and 2.25 standard deviations and return periods of 160 and 40 years, respectively. Existing precipitation and reanalysis data sets failed to capture this event due to a lack of reliable observations in the Asian and Pacific regions. More reliable European meteorological data suggest that this event was primarily driven by extreme cold over northern Europe, which triggered eastward‐propagating Rossby waves, inducing high pressure over Mongolia and suppressing ascent over the LP.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(11)
Tongji University (CN), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Chengdu University of Information Technology (CN), Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (CN), Institute of Subtropical Agriculture (CN), Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment (CN), Institute of Earth Environment (CN), Xi'an Jiaotong University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chang'an University, National Key Research and Development Program of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 84%
Tree-ring climate responses
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