Lagged Stance Interactions and Counter-Spiral of Silence: A Data-Driven Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of Technical Public Opinion Events

Understanding the dynamics of public opinion formation in digital environments is crucial for managing technological communications effectively. This study investigates stance interactions and opinion reversal phenomena in technical discourse through analysis of the Manus AI controversy that generated approximately 36,932 social media interactions during March 2025. Employing an integrated methodology combining Large Language Model (LLM)-enhanced stance detection with agent-based modeling (ABM), we reveal distinctive patterns challenging traditional public opinion theories. Our cross-correlation analysis identifies significant lagged interaction effects between skeptical and supportive stances, demonstrating how critical expressions trigger amplified counter-responses rather than inducing silence. Unlike prior conceptualizations of counter-silencing that emphasize ideological resistance or echo chambers, our notion of the “counter-spiral of silence” specifically highlights lagged emotional responses and reactive amplification triggered by minority expressions in digital technical discourse. We delineate its boundary conditions as arising under high emotional salience, asymmetrical expertise, and platform structures that enable real-time feedback. The agent-based simulation reproduces empirical patterns, revealing how emotional contagion and network clustering mechanisms generate “counter-spiral of silence” phenomena where challenges to dominant positions ultimately strengthen rather than weaken those positions. These findings illuminate how cognitive asymmetries between public expectations and industry realities create distinctive discourse patterns in technical contexts, offering insights for managing technology communication and predicting public response trajectories in rapidly evolving digital environments.