Assessing Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in the Upper Minjiang River Basin

Ecosystem services (ESs) are fundamental to human well-being, yet the capacity of ecosystems to provide ESs is increasingly altered by anthropogenic climate and land use changes. Understanding how climate change and land use change impact ecosystem service (ES) dynamics is critical for promoting sustainable region development in ecologically sensitive regions. Using the InVEST model and a scenario-based framework, this study assesses the relative contributions of climate and land use changes to water yield, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality in the upper Minjiang River basin, China from 1990 to 2020 and projects ES changes under future climate and land use scenarios for 2050. Our results show that climate change played a dominant role in increasing water yield and soil conservation services, particularly after 2000, while land use changes enhance carbon sequestration and habitat quality. Although forest expansion contributed positively to carbon storage and erosion control, the loss of grassland and increased construction land reduced habitat quality and intensified erosion risks in some areas. Scenario simulations for 2050 demonstrate that the ecological protection scenario yields the most balanced improvements in all four ESs. These findings highlight the distinct roles of climate and land use changes in shaping ecosystem service provision and offer a scientific basis for promoting the sustainable regional environment in alpine regions under changing climate and land use.