Arctic Spillover? Military Signalling in the European Arctic Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

How has Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic evolved following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Are we seeing a more forward-leaning and assertive Russia, and have NATO allies strengthened their presence? In short, are we seeing an intensified mutual deterrence posture? These crucial questions are made all the more pressing by the region hosting a significant proportion of Russia’s sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, the article analyses developments in both Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic, with a particular focus on how deterrence is signalled through military posture. The study finds that, despite claims to the contrary, military day-to-day business in the European Arctic remains relatively unchanged. Russia’s activities appear to signal a desire to maintain the status quo rather than revisionist stance. While the West has strengthened its deterrence signalling, its posture remains measured.