EU climate policy in turbulent times: understanding the response to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Early studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on EU climate policy have found that the crises reinforced EU climate policy. We go beyond these analyses by investigating key drivers underlying the EU's climate policy responses and their dynamics. This enables us to, first, better understand how the responses emerged and, second, explore the circumstances under which EU climate policy development may remain resilient under evolving crisis circumstances. We explore four factors: Commission climate policy entrepreneurship, the East-West climate policy divide among Member States, economic assets and interest groups, and the climate movement. We find that the crises enabled a side-lining of the East-West divisions while offering an opportunity for the Commission to promote its flagship European Green Deal. However, the further development of the four factors suggests that conditions for EU climate policymaking have deteriorated.