The Coupling Coordination Degree and Spatio-Temporal Divergence Between Land Urbanization and Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions of China’s Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The strategic coordinated development of land urbanization and carbon emission systems in urban agglomerations is crucial for achieving dual carbon goals and sustainable development. While existing studies emphasize population and economic urbanization, the spatiotemporal coupling mechanisms between land urbanization (encompassing size, input, and output dimensions) and carbon emissions remain underexplored. This study collects data on land urbanization and carbon emissions from 27 cities in China’s Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration between 2010 and 2019. By establishing evaluation systems for land urbanization and energy consumption carbon emission subsystems, by and employing coupling coordination degree models with spatial autocorrelation analysis methods, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of the coupled coordination relationship between land urbanization and energy consumption carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2010 to 2019, the comprehensive level of the land urbanization subsystem in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration continued to rise, with higher comprehensive indices in the southern and northern peripheral regions and lower values in central urban areas. The carbon emission subsystem showed sustained stable decline, with a gradual reduction in the number of cities maintaining low carbon emission levels. (2) Temporally, the overall coupling coordination degree of the urban agglomeration system demonstrated an upward trend, progressing from severe imbalance to the primary coordination stage. (3) Spatially, significant regional differences in coupling coordination degree were observed, showing higher values in the southeastern areas compared to the northwestern regions. (4) Most areas exhibited no significant clustering characteristics in the coupling coordination degree between land urbanization and energy consumption carbon emissions, while the local spatial clustering patterns demonstrated temporal variations. These findings systematically reveal the transition mechanisms of land–carbon coordination in urban agglomerations, providing empirical evidence to resolve the theoretical debate on urbanization’s dual role in emission promotion and reduction.