The Evolution of Neodymium Cycle, Urban Minerals, and Trade in China

Neodymium is a critical element for the global transition to clean energy, yet its long-term supply is constrained by trade dependencies, resource depletion, and persistently low recycling rates. This study employs a dynamic substance flow analysis to quantify China’s cycle of neodymium from 2001 - 2021, and to assess the contribution of urban mining—i.e., the recovery of neodymium from end-of-life products (or called urban minerals)—to domestic resource availability. We also evaluate the effectiveness of recent government measures aimed at curbing illegal mining and stabilising domestic supply. With demand for neodymium set to rise sharply in tandem with electric vehicle and renewable-energy deployment, the results underscore the importance of: (1) scaling up closed-loop recycling infrastructures, (2) reinforcing regulatory oversight and enforcement, and (3) diversifying trade partnerships to bolster supply security. By shifting the balance toward secondary resources and robust governance, China can reduce its dependence on primary extraction and enhance the resilience of its neodymium supply chain.