Unveiling the role of energy policy uncertainty, energy transition and climate policy uncertainty on renewable energy minerals in China

Abstract The transition to renewable energy (REN) is indispensable for achieving long-term environmental sustainability, but its advancement necessitates substantial input of critical minerals such as cobalt, graphite, rare elements, and lithium. While the importance of these minerals for the transition to clean energy is increasingly recognized in the literature, the role of policy -induced uncertainties—particularly energy policy uncertainty (ENPU) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) — in shaping mineral production remains underexplored, especially in China. This study addresses this gap by empirically investigating the impact of ENPU, CPU, and energy transition (ENT) on the production of REN-related minerals in China from October 2002 to October 2022. To capture the heterogeneous and nonlinear relationships among the variables, the analysis utilizes advanced econometric techniques, namely the multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression (M-QQR) and the Fourier-based quantile causality test (FQCT). The findings reveal three major insights: (i) ENPU exerts a statistically significant negative influence solely on graphite production, with negligible effects on other minerals; (ii) CPU has a positive and robust influence on the output of graphite, rare elements, and lithium across multiple quantiles; and (iii) ENT consistently drives an increase in the production of all examined REN minerals. These results underscore the differential sensitivity of mineral production to various policy uncertainties and the structural changes associated with the energy transition. The study concludes that reducing energy policy uncertainty and promoting investment in clean energy technologies are essential for securing a stable and sustainable mineral supply chain to support China’s low-carbon transition.