Calculation of the Virtual Power Plant Baseline Load Considering the Temperature Sensitivity of load

The efficient operation of virtual power plants cannot be separated from accurate load management, and thus the accuracy of baseline load calculation is crucial. This paper analyses the current situation of virtual power plants' baseline load calculation in China and discusses the limitations of traditional baseline load calculation methods. Aiming at the load with temperature-sensitive characteristics, an improved method based on clustering and confidence statistics is proposed. Elaborating on the key aspects of the method, such as data processing, cluster analysis and confidence statistics analysis, it reveals how to improve the accuracy of baseline load calculation. The validity and reasonableness of the proposed calculation method are also verified through examples using actual load data from a certain place in China, the conclusion shows that the proposed method has significant advantages in improving the accuracy of load forecasting and reducing error, especially in coping with the fluctuation of temperature and extreme weather conditions, which shows stronger adaptability. This will provide a more reasonable basis for the optimal scheduling of the virtual power plants and enhance the operational efficiency and stability of the virtual power plants in the power system.