Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.
Authors
- Koji Fujita (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3753-4981)
- Samar Minallah (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8419-5850)
- Walter Willem Immerzeel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2010-9543)
- Akiko Sakai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6320-6212)
- Matthias Huss (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2377-6923)
- Philip Kraaijenbrink (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0126-8602)
- David R. Rounce (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4481-4191)
- Tamsin Edwards (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4760-4704)
- Loris Compagno (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5422-7281)
- Daniel Farinotti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3417-4570)
- Regine Hock (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-9441)
- Nicolas Champollion (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7988-4694)
- Lilian Schuster (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2101-2070)
- Gunter Leguy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-8076)
- Lander Van Tricht (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7619-8955)
- Harry Zekollari (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7443-4034)
- Megan James
- William H. Lipscomb (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7100-3730)
- Fabien Maussion (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X)
- Ben Marzeion (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6185-3539)
- Moritz Oberrauch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6211-9690)
Institutions
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE)
- University of Alaska Fairbanks (US)
- University of Fribourg (CH)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- King's College London (GB)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Universität Innsbruck (AT)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (FR)
- Swiss Re (Switzerland) (CH)
- Nagoya University (JP)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Université Grenoble Alpes (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science
- Published
- 2025-05-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu4675
- Citations
- 22
- Primary Topic
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 28.62
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- European Commission
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
- Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Norges Forskningsråd
- Vlaamse regering
- Universität Innsbruck