Forecasting the Future of Brachyponera sennaarensis (Mayr, 1862) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae). Climate Change, Habitat Degradation, and Management Implications throughout Africa and the Middle East

This comprehensive study examines the range and ecological interactions of Brachyponera sennaarensis (Mayr, 1862), a ponerine ant prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Understanding the distribution patterns of ants is vital to developing sound long-term management strategies, as ants are critically involved in terrestrial ecosystems. This study employed species distribution modelling (SDM) via Maxent to forecast the present and future distributions of B. sennaarensis under two climate change scenarios: RCP 2.6, indicative of a climate change mitigation pathway, and RCP 8.5, denoting a high-emission scenario, for the years 2050 and 2070. The research utilized occurrence data from digital sources, implementing stringent filtration methods to guarantee data integrity. Crucial bioclimatic characteristics, such as annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest quarter were recognized as key indicators of habitat compatibility. The findings demonstrate that the performance of the model is statistically dependable, as evidenced by an AUC value of 0.81 and a TSS value of 0.7. Our research predicts possible range changes and habitat degradation, especially in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, where rising temperatures and modified precipitation patterns may threaten the viability of this species. In contrast, the RCP 2.6 scenario indicates a slight northward extension of appropriate habitats in West Africa and the Sahel, underscoring the resilience of B. sennaarensis in more favorable climatic circumstances. This research highlights the significance of comprehending the ecological needs of B. sennaarensis in the context of climate change. It necessitates aggressive management strategies to alleviate the effects of climate change on this species and its habitats. The findings offer essential information for policymakers and management programs.