Consequences of climate-related poleward shifts in cod spawning

With climate change, many species alter their distribution according to local climate velocities. For marine fish, suitable areas for spawning in a warming climate may be less favorable for the resulting offspring, e.g., the sensitive larval and juvenile phases. The size of the young-of-the-year before their first winter is an important factor for subsequent survival, year class formation, and population dynamics of many fish species and populations. Here, we investigate how the change in spawning location of the Barents Sea population of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) may affect the mean individual size of the offspring in their first fall. We demonstrate how the observed climate warming-related northerly shift in spawning location may lead to smaller sizes of young-of-the-year cod. Our analysis reveals a positive effect of sea temperature on offspring size and a nonlinear effect of spawning stock biomass (SSB) with smaller offspring size at both the high and low end of SSB. Decreased offspring size is likely to affect population dynamics through reduced recruitment success, and we hypothesize that it may have been part of the reason for this population's recent reduction in biomass.