Great Power Competition in Associated States: The Case of Bhutan

Abstract: Historically speaking, Bhutan became a British protectorate through the 1910 Treaty of Punakha. Under the treaty obligations, the Royal Kingdom of Bhutan agreed to be guided by Great Britain in its external affairs with the latter's guarantee of non-interference in internal affairs. The imprint of British legacy was visible under Article 2 of the 1949 Treaty, entrusting India to guide Bhutan's foreign policy with New Delhi's insurance of non-interference in Thimphu's internal matters. Simultaneously, Bhutan's dependency on India under the treaty became indispensable in the economic and security realm. A major shift occurred in the New Delhi–Thimphu relationship under the 2007 renegotiated Treaty of Friendship, guaranteeing Bhutan more autonomy and sovereignty in conducting its foreign policy and external affairs more independently. In light of the above backdrop, this article first illustrates the underlying factors behind the strategic interests of India, China, and the United States in Bhutan. It further explains how Bhutan, as an associated state, has managed to navigate complex ties with its two behemoth neighbors—India and China—within the dominant geopolitical object-subject narrative. Second, the article assesses the long-term fallout of China's transgression at Bhutan's Doklam plateau (2017) on the trilateral Beijing–Thimphu–New Delhi relationship as well as on a protracted Sino-Indian border dispute. Third, it examines how Bhutan, as an associated state, has been able to exercise its agency amidst a rivalry between China, India, and the United States. Finally, the article evaluates the future trajectory of an India-China contestation for strategic influence over Bhutan.