Navigating uncertainty: How geopolitical events reshape trend following strategies in financial markets

In an era of global instability, geopolitical shocks have become critical variables in the behavior of financial markets. This study explores how professionals in trading and portfolio management adapt their trend following strategies in response to crises such as pandemics, armed conflicts, trade disputes, and economic sanctions. Based on qualitative interviews with sixteen market experts, the findings reveal how volatility, liquidity, and market sentiment interact under geopolitical stress. The paper discusses the limitations of standard technical models and highlights the need for agile, experience-driven decision-making when facing uncertainty. By bridging theoretical frameworks with real-world testimonies, the article provides an interpretive lens on trend following as both a technical method and a strategic mindset.