Tourism resilience in Iran: navigating sanctions, diplomacy and emerging opportunities

The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States in 2024 marks a significant shift in US-Iran relations, with far-reaching consequences for Iran’s tourism sector. This brief report examines the potential impact of Trump’s foreign policy, particularly the re-imposition of sanctions and escalating military tensions, on a tourism industry that had shown promising growth under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Following Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran’s tourism sector suffered declining international arrivals, increased economic isolation and infrastructural setbacks. His return to office, reinforced by the National Security Presidential Memorandum signed on 4 February 2025, signals a revival of aggressive policies that may further weaken Iran’s global tourism appeal. Drawing on political economy and tourism resilience frameworks, this brief report explores how sanctions, geopolitical instability and regional competition shape the industry’s trajectory. It also considers Iran’s potential strategies for adaptation, including strengthening non-Western tourism partnerships, leveraging alternative financial systems, and promoting domestic and religious tourism. While this article does not seek to predict exact outcomes, it highlights the broader vulnerability of tourism-dependent economies in politically volatile regions, and underscores the need for resilience strategies in the face of shifting global power dynamics.