Assessing the Effects of Hydraulic Fracturing on Streamflow Through Coupled Human–Hydrological Modeling

The Devonian–Mississippian Bakken Formation in western North Dakota (USA) is one of the largest hydraulic fracturing oil fields in the world. Streamflow analysis showed that the average seven-day low flows in the region surprisingly increased during the recent oil boom. The increase, ranging from 88% to 3648%, was largely due to the fact that the region had received 20% more precipitation than normal during that time period. To study the impact of hydraulic fracturing at Bakken on regional streamflow under normal precipitation and other scenarios, we integrated a socioeconomic agent-based model that simulates the hydraulic fracturing water uses with a hydrological model that simulates the streamflow in the Little Muddy River in the region. Our results showed that compared to the existing (baseline) scenario, the average seven-day low flows in the Little Muddy River decreased from 18% to 88%, while the annual average flows did not change much under drier to normal precipitation scenarios. Our research also finds that climate factors and water management policies were more influential than hydraulic fracturing and population growth. The emergency water management policies implemented at the peak of shale oil development had mitigated the hydraulic fracturing impact on regional streamflow at low-flow conditions and improved water resource sustainability in the region.