Base Assumptions: The Complex Electoral Geography of Stateside US Military Installations

ABSTRACT During the 2020 presidential election, the Trump campaign incorrectly claimed that a lower-than-expected proportion of Republican votes among populations living on and near military bases signaled evidence of voter fraud. These claims rested on assumptions that military bases and their surrounding communities are strongholds for political conservativism––a belief held by scholars, pundits, and politicians alike. While the logic behind these arguments is appealing, it fails to consider the complexities surrounding military service and institutions, political geography, partisan preferences, and voting behavior. We directly test the notion that communities close to military bases will be and vote more Republican. Using three different but related empirical strategies that rely on a large dataset spanning 16 years, we find evidence contradicting the conventional wisdom. No consistent pattern across military installations exists. While some lean Republican, others lean Democratic, and the vast majority exhibit no party pattern at all. Our results carry implications for American civil–military relations and the maintenance of American democracy.