Cross-State SARS-COV-2 Epidemic Forecast in U.S. by Gaidai Bio-Risk Evaluation Scheme

Abstract This investigation addressed challenging issue of robust pandemic reoccurrence risks assessment, given return period and geographical area of interest – , i.e., spatiotemporal problem setup. With a low death and morbidity rate and a significant potential for worldwide spread, the 2019 coronavirus disease (SARS-COV-2 or COVID-19) exerted some pressure on national public health system. The goal of this study is to benchmark state-of-the-art bioreliability scheme that allows for future outbreaks risk assessment, using available clinical data along with representative decease's dynamics territorial and temporal mapping. This case study employed multicenter, population-based, multimodal biostatistical strategy, able to utilize even limited amount of raw medical survey data. Novel bioreliability scheme was utilized to evaluate likelihood of future viral outbreaks in any state of interest within the USA. Existing reliability techniques struggle to address cross-correlations between distinct regional data, given high regional dimensionality, e.g., systems with number of degrees-of-freedom (NDOF) above bivariate (2D). Daily SARS-COV-2 patient counts per each U.S. state were accounted for. Cross-state spatiotemporal future epidemic outbreak risks have been assessed and confidence intervals (CI) have been provided. Proposed multivariate biohazard evaluation scheme may be utilized for a wide range of public health-related applications, based on raw clinical survey data. This case study investigated future SARS-COV-2 outbreak risks across USA; however, infection's transmission mechanism was not analyzed.