A Framework for Risk Evolution Path Forecasting Model of Maritime Traffic Accidents Based on Link Prediction

Water transportation is a critical component of the overall transportation system. However, the gradual increase in traffic density has led to a corresponding rise in accident occurrences. This study proposes a quantitative framework for analyzing the evolutionary paths of maritime traffic accident risks by integrating complex network theory and link prediction methods. First, 371 maritime accident investigation reports were analyzed to identify the underlying risk factors associated with such incidents. A risk evolution network model was then constructed, within which the importance of each risk factor node was evaluated. Subsequently, several node similarity indices based on node importance were proposed. The performance of these indices was compared, and the optimal indicator was selected. This indicator was then integrated into the risk evolution network model to assess the interdependence between risk factors and accident types, ultimately identifying the most probable evolution paths from various risk factors to specific accident outcomes. The results show that the risk evolution path shows obvious characteristics: “lookout negligence” is highly correlated with collision accidents; “improper route selection” plays a critical role in the risk evolution of grounding and stranding incidents; “improper on-duty” is closely linked to sinking accidents; and “illegal operation” show a strong association with fire and explosion events. Additionally, the average risk evolution paths for collisions, groundings, and sinking accidents are relatively short, suggesting higher frequencies of occurrence for these accident types. This research provides crucial insights for managing water transportation systems and offers practical guidance for accident prevention and mitigation.