A transdisciplinary research approach for socio-ecological strategic planning within the context of the WEFE nexus

The Jordan Valley (JV) exemplifies the intricate interplay of water, energy, food, and ecosystem (WEFE) dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for sustainable development and climate change mitigation. As a transboundary river basin with acute nexus issues and a history of conflicts, it is imperative to foster inclusive debates, empower stakeholders, and encourage fair collaboration in strategic planning. This study proposes an integrated framework for participatory strategic planning in the WEFE nexus, developed through the JV case study. The work has been conducted as part of the PRIMA Programme funded research project EcoFuture (https://ecofuture-prima.eu). The framework emphasizes decentralized yet coordinated decision-making rooted in a clear understanding of intersectoral challenges. The EcoFuture project employs a socio-ecological approach to stakeholder engagement and strategic planning aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change and desertification, structured in two distinct phases Fig. 1. Phase A focuses on stakeholder input, while Phase B involves the co-design of a strategic plan for climate change adaptation and mitigation, with active stakeholder participation. Phase A has already been implemented in the JV and included the following aspects. A Causal Loop Diagram for the whole region was developed and through stakeholder participatory engagement in the 3 National Living Labs the challenges of each country were identified and prioritized. Then the capacity of the community to address these challenges was assessed in the transnational living lab and finally, a gap analysis was conducted to assess the gaps and potential solutions. These stakeholder engagement activities were supported by a series of studies on WEFE Nexus background data collection and mathematical models. Phase B that is ongoing comprises: the identification of a program of measures to address the WEFE nexus challenges identified by the stakeholders, conducting a multi-criteria assessment of the measures coupled with techno-economic analysis of the water and agricultural policies, which will then feed into the foresight analysis, where a strategic plan to combat desertification will be co-designed with the stakeholders. the identification of a program of measures to address the WEFE nexus challenges identified by the stakeholders, conducting a multi-criteria assessment of the measures coupled with techno-economic analysis of the water and agricultural policies, which will then feed into the foresight analysis, where a strategic plan to combat desertification will be co-designed with the stakeholders. The proposed framework is designed to be conceptual and adaptable, allowing for customization to meet the unique characteristics of other Mediterranean cases and beyond. The rationale for including each methodological component in this framework is outlined as follows. WEFE Nexus background data collection forms the foundation, providing critical data to inform core methodologies such as WEFE Mapping, Governance Mapping, and Socio-ecological Mapping. Additionally, WEFE mathematical models simulate the water and energy resources of the study area, quantifying current and future conditions and demand. These "desk studies" are supplemented by participatory assessment approaches. First, Participatory Systems Mapping is proposed as a strategic planning tool to shift from individual (or sectoral) perspectives to the definition of a holistic system picture, based on the WEFE Nexus approach; ultimately identifying suitable actions to drive the system towards sustainability. Next, Community Capacity Assessment may be used to explore whether the community has the skills and assets to tackle the challenges it faces, as well as to identify the kind of support the community needs to further develop its capacities and achieve certain goals. Finally, Gap analysis is a process originating in management literature and involves the comparison of actual performance with potential or desired performance. In the context of WEFE strategic planning, the gap between these two performances may guide the selection of a program of measures to address WEFE challenges and reduce this gap. While gap analysis has not yet been applied in WEFE nexus literature, we consider it an essential step for linking all the previous methodologies with the preparation of the WEFE alternatives to be evaluated in phase B of the framework. The up to now findings underscore pressing challenges, priorities, and leverage points across the JV territories, revealing significant disparities driven by socio-political, environmental, and economic differences. The proposed pathways aim to foster resilience and adaptation to the region’s intertwined crises. The methodologies and framework presented offer replicable tools for other regions facing similar climate challenges and nexus complexities. This framework offers a robust and adaptable methodology to tackle complex climate change and desertification challenges, providing a valuable approach for other regions facing similar issues.