The Climate-Ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra as an integrated platform for short-term ecosystem-based forecasting

COAT (www.coat.no) is a Norwegian observation system of the impacts of climate change on Arctic tundra, focusing on two regions, Finnmark and Svalbard. One critical component of COAT is to provide short-term (time horizon = a few months to one-two years) forecasts of species and ecosystem components that can contribute to adaptive management. Three examples will be discussed: forecasts of willow ptarmigan populations based on different direct and indirect drivers (small mammals, weather, habitat characteristics); these forecasts are then used by local management (FeFo) to decide on hunting quotas, forecast of the reproductive success of an endangered species, the lesser white-fronted goose, based on small mammal abundance, used by BirdLife Norway, and forecasts of moth populations and associated forest damages that are of use by forestry agencies. forecasts of willow ptarmigan populations based on different direct and indirect drivers (small mammals, weather, habitat characteristics); these forecasts are then used by local management (FeFo) to decide on hunting quotas, forecast of the reproductive success of an endangered species, the lesser white-fronted goose, based on small mammal abundance, used by BirdLife Norway, and forecasts of moth populations and associated forest damages that are of use by forestry agencies. In this presentation, I will present the structure of the forecasting models and their validation so far, as for example the ptarmigan forecasts have been assessed against actual density estimates measured just before the hunting season starts. I will discuss the internal consistency of the models, as they include direct and indirect trophic effects, and how such effects could be included for slightly longer term predictions (i.e. 1-3 years). Another point of the discussion is the importance of high quality monitoring data at the relevant spatial and temporal scales, which require a systematic, long-term and coordinated field effort. The aim of COAT is to provide actionable short- and middle term forecasts of the main ecosystem components, from vegetation to predators, and is only made possible by the collaboration of multiple institutions, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, the Norwegian Polar Institute, the Norwegian Institute of Nature Resarch, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, UNIS and the University of Aarhus, and the strong and continuous involvement of multiple stakeholders.