Study on Energy Efficiency of Retrofitting Existing Residential Buildings Based on System Dynamics Modeling

This study constructs a system dynamics (SD)-based energy efficiency model for retrofitting existing residential buildings by considering urban residential buildings in Liaoning Province, China. In this study, we sorted the boundaries of building energy efficiency accounting, analyzed the current status of related research and system dynamics theory, determined the influencing factors and transmission mechanisms of residential building energy efficiency renovation, set the research boundaries and assumptions, drew the circuit diagrams of various subsystems, determined the main equations and parameters of the model, and ensured the reliability of the model through stability and historicity tests. Through scenario simulation and analysis, it was found that, from 2016 to 2035, the comprehensive benefits of urban residential building renovation will grow slowly in the early stage and rapidly in the late stage, which will potentially have large benefits. The socio-economic environment, governmental policies, energy-saving technologies, market demand, and other factors influence each other, among which the progress of energy-saving technologies has the greatest impact on the comprehensive benefits. Changing the inputs of a certain aspect cannot make the benefits of energy consumption, environment, and economic tripartite grow equally. The energy consumption benefit potential of centralized heating renovation is larger. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and decision support for the energy-saving transformation of existing residential buildings.