Optimization of agricultural crop pattern based on water footprint methodology

Agricultural activities account for the majority of global freshwater consumption, prompting extensive research into strategies for reducing water demand in the sector. Crop pattern optimization has emerged as a key strategy for achieving significant water savings. However, most existing studies prioritize yield maximization over minimizing water consumption. Additionally, water-based optimization efforts often rely on low temporal resolution data and rarely offer practical recommendations for crop pattern design. This study aims to evaluate water-saving potential in agriculture through crop pattern optimization based on water footprint (WF) assessments, focusing on the Ceyhan River Basin-an important hotspot for diverse crop production in Türkiye. The method effectively balances blue, green, and grey water components by integrating high-resolution spatial WF data from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model into a multi-objective optimization framework. We developed six scenarios: Scenario S1 prioritizes total WF reduction, while Scenario S6 focuses solely on blue WF, with intermediate scenarios representing linear blends of these priorities. The results show that Scenario S1 achieves a 23.4% reduction in total WF (614 million m³)-comparable to the annual wheat consumption of 1.8 million people-whereas Scenario S6 attains a 47.9% decrease in blue WF (464 million m³), potentially meeting the daily water needs of 5.6 million individuals. Notably, an intermediate scenario (S5) provides a balanced reduction across WF components with a more uniform crop distribution, enhancing its practical appeal. Recognizing that farmer practices and economic concerns may hinder implementation, we recommend establishing targeted incentive mechanisms-such as financial support for farmers who adopt optimized cropping patterns-to facilitate the transition toward water-efficient practices. Overall, this research offers a robust decision-support tool for policymakers and water resource managers, providing clear guidance for aligning agricultural practices with sustainable water management and enhancing food and water security in water-scarce regions.