Integrated Effects of Climate, Topography, and Greenhouse Gas on Grassland Phenology in the Southern Slope of the Qilian Mountains

Understanding vegetation phenology dynamics is essential for evaluating ecosystem responses to environmental changes. While previous studies have primarily focused on the correlation between vegetation phenology and climate variables, the integrated effects of meteorological factors, topography, and greenhouse gas (GHG) have often been overlooked. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in grassland phenology on the southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains from 2002 to 2022, investigating the combined effects of these environmental factors. Our findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in vegetation phenology during the study period. Specifically, the start of the growing season (SOS), length of growing season (LOS), and end of the growing season (EOS) advanced, lengthened, and delayed by 0.35, 0.55, and 0.20 days per year, respectively. Climate factors were the primary drivers of phenological changes, with annual precipitation being the main determinant of SOS and LOS, while annual minimum temperature significantly influenced EOS. Topography and GHG had indirect effects on phenology, influencing both annual precipitation and temperature. Additionally, topography affected phenology through its impact on N2O and CO2 emissions. This study highlights the complex interactions between climate, topography, and GHG in shaping vegetation phenology, providing new insights into the driving mechanisms behind phenological changes in semi-arid grassland ecosystems.