Navigating economic growth targets: the role of innovation-driven strategies in regional talent allocation in China

As China’s economy transitions into a stage of high-quality development, the shift from a factor-driven growth model to an innovation-driven one has become crucial. This paper utilizes panel data from 258 cities in China spanning from 2004 to 2019 to investigate the impact of growth targets at different stages of economic development on regional talent allocation. Additionally, it explores whether long-term innovation-driven strategies can counterbalance the imbalances in regional talent allocation caused by short-term growth target constraints. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) Economic growth target constraints significantly hinder regional talent allocation, with particularly pronounced effects in non-capital and non-innovative cities. Conversely, innovation-driven approaches substantially enhance talent allocation efficiency, demonstrating stronger impacts in non-capital cities and innovation hubs. (2) Mechanistic analysis reveals dual pathways: Growth targets exacerbate local protectionism and market fragmentation, thereby impeding marketization processes and talent mobility. In contrast, innovation-driven strategies foster industrial agglomeration upgrading, creating self-reinforcing cycles for talent concentration. (3) Moreover, the impact of innovation-driven on regional talent allocation is influenced by the intensity of economic growth target constraints, showing a threshold effect. Specifically, the higher the intensity of local economic growth target constraints, the smaller the effect of innovation-driven on regional talent allocation.