Mapping socio-economic vulnerability and conflict in oil palm cultivation: A case study from West Papua, Indonesia

Abstract The expansion of oil palm estates in West Papua, Indonesia, has had profound socio-economic and environmental impacts on local communities. This study aims to map and quantify the socio-economic vulnerable and conflict of these communities and actors in the face of increasing land use for oil palm cultivation. We used a mixed-method approach, combining socio-economic indicators to assess vulnerability and conflicts at the household level, involving 94 farmers, both Papua and non-Papua, as well as community actors. Key variables, including income diversification, access to land, social capital, and dependency on palm oil-related activities, were analysed to understand the adaptive capacities of local populations. The importance-performance analysis was conducted using Cartesian, multivariate, and stakeholder analyses, employing tools such as Excel, SmartPLS, and SocNetV software. The results indicate that land use has a positive and significant effect on both economic indicators and social variables. In contrast, perceptions negatively impact both economic participation and social variables. Social factors, while interconnected, appear to have a weaker direct effect on economic participation. Land use shows the strongest positive correlation with revenue generation, while perceptions tend to negatively affect revenue. Although social factors are related, they exert a lesser direct influence on revenue generation. The constructed model explains a considerable proportion of the variance in economic parameters, with a 36% explanatory power. Farmers have roles and functions in inducing vulnerability and conflict, including actors. This correlation matrix reveals the structural dynamics of relationships between actors in the network. Some actors play pivotal roles in connecting multiple actors, while others are more peripheral or disconnected.