Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use change in Xilingol region of Inner Mongolia, China

• This study focused on LUCE in ecologically fragile regions. • Build-up land has become a major carbon source in the region. • Shifts in carbon emission centers are vital for dual carbon goals. • Use Hasse Diagram Technique to clarify main drivers of carbon emissions. Land use carbon emissions (LUCE) play a critical role in sustainable regional development. As a key coal production base and ecological barrier in northern China, the Xilingol League faces pressing challenges in balancing LUCE with sustainability objectives. However, substantial knowledge gaps remain regarding spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of LUCE in mining-grassland transition zones. This study integrated multi-temporal remote sensing data (1990–2020, 30 m resolution) with socioeconomic statistics and applied the Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT) to analyze carbon emission drivers in this ecologically fragile region. The results yielded three key findings: (1) built-up areas expanded by 2.4 times, becoming the dominant carbon source, while the high- and moderate-coverage grasslands declined significantly; (2) LUCE exhibited the distinct spatiotemporal patterns, remaining stable and low from 1990 to 2000 but increasing rapidly from 2000 to 2020, with the spatial distribution demonstrating the “east-high, west-low; south-high, and north-low” pattern and the emissions consistently concentrated in or near Xilinhot City; and (3) the influence of drivers shifted over time, with the biological disturbances becoming increasingly prominent, while the impacts of urbanization, industrialization, and economic factors declined after 2000. This study offers practical insights into LUCE dynamics in the Xilingol League and provides scientific support for the development of regional carbon reduction and ecological conservation policies.