Calculating loss and damage from extreme weather events in Small Island Developing States

Abstract A functioning Loss and Damage Fund requires a quantification of ‘loss’ and ‘damage’, both retrospectively and prospectively. We present estimates of the impacts of extreme weather events that are attributable to climate change in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) since 2000. We use Extreme Event Impact Attribution methods and project the attributed damages from floods and storms to the year 2050. From 2000 to 2022, a total of 10,113 deaths associated with extreme weather events were recorded in SIDS; anthropogenic climate change was responsible, by our estimate, for almost 40% of these deaths. Annual economic losses of US$1.7 billion can also be attributed to climate change, representing 0.8% of the collective gross domestic product (GDP) of SIDS. We show that small and undiversified SIDS economies suffer higher relative levels of climate change–attributed losses and damages than non-SIDS across all country-income groups. In the future to 2050, floods and storms are projected to produce cumulative climate change–attributable loss and damage of $56 billion in SIDS under a 2 °C warming scenario by 2050. This would represent 11% higher average over the next 23 years (2023–2045) than over the past 23 years (2000–2022). These projections underestimate the potential loss and damage that may occur in SIDS, because of limited data about some hazards (esp. slow-onset events such as droughts and sea-level rise), and because indirect economic impacts (e.g. loss of GDP, loss of revenues) and unmonetized damages (e.g., of cultural and environmental assets) have not been included in our analysis.