‘Nothing Works’? A Quantitative Assessment of the Effects of Different Types of Return and Readmission Frameworks on EU Member States' Enforced Return Rates

Abstract Recent decades have seen a significant rise in return and readmission frameworks. Scholars note a trend towards informalization, incentivization and Europeanization. Yet, no study has thoroughly evaluated with advanced regression techniques how the resulting frameworks impact migrant return and whether different types of frameworks affect migrant return differentially. In this study, we use Cassarino's inventory of return and readmission frameworks, data from the European Migration Network and Eurostat return data. We employ fixed‐effects Poisson regression techniques to examine how various types of return and readmission frameworks influence the enforced return rates (2008–2021). Our findings hold significant implications for academic research and policy‐making. Whilst bilateral return and readmission frameworks and EU Return and Readmission Agreements (EURAs) linked to visa facilitation arrangements show limited positive effects on enforced migrant return rates, non‐binding EU‐wide frameworks appear to reduce such rates. These findings are interpreted from the perspectives of rational choice and sociological institutionalism.