Evolution Characteristics and Control Suggestions for Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in the Yellow River Basin of China

The Yellow River Basin in China is the region with the most severe agricultural non-point source pollution. The control of agricultural non-point source pollution is an important task for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin at present and in the near future. This paper takes the eight provinces located along the Yellow River, except Sichuan, as the research object. This study estimates the total amount, intensity, and structure of agricultural non-point source pollution from 2014 to 2023 by adopting quantitative methods such as the pollutant discharge coefficient method, the equivalent pollution load method, and so on. The results reveal that the total amount of non-point source pollution of the Yellow River Basin has risen from approx. 4.94 million tons in 2014 to approx. 7.45 million tons in 2023. However, the growth rate has decelerated over the past five years, and the pollution intensity has decreased by 15~40% on average. The characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution presents as follows: chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions have become the most significant pollutant, accounting for 90% of the total pollution; livestock and poultry breeding has become the main source of pollution; and the key areas of pollution have shifted from the lower reaches to the middle and upper reaches, but the regional differences have been narrowing, as measured by the Gini coefficient. An analysis of the Kuznets curve indicates that most of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin still depend on an extensive growth model characterized by high input, high emission, and low output. Finally, this paper proposes a classified governance and measurement system for regions and sources, aiming to enhance the agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control system. It also advocates for accelerating the green transformation of agricultural production in the Yellow River Basin to achieve the rapid decoupling of pollution emission from economic growth.