A Systems Approach to Carbon Emission Networks and Spatial Spillovers in China: Evidence from 31 Provinces Using the Spatial Durbin Model and Social Network Analysis

Amid China’s “dual carbon” goals of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, understanding the spatial dynamics of carbon emissions is essential for promoting coordinated regional decarbonization. This study takes a systems perspective to investigate the drivers and network structures of carbon emissions across 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2022. Utilizing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) alongside social network analysis (SNA), it examines both the spatial spillover effects of key economic and innovation-related factors and the structural characteristics of interprovincial carbon transmission networks. The main findings include the following: (1) a significant spatial autocorrelation in provincial carbon emissions, indicating strong cross-regional spillover effects; (2) a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship between green innovation and carbon emissions, where emissions initially rise before declining as innovation matures; (3) a dual impact of human capital, which increases local emissions but reduces emissions in neighboring regions through knowledge diffusion; and (4) the identification of key provinces such as Shaanxi, Henan and Hubei as central nodes within the carbon emission network, acting as influential hubs in the transmission of carbon emissions. This study highlights the importance of differentiated policy design based on regional network centrality and advocates for a systemic governance framework that promotes technology diffusion, talent mobility, and collaborative emission control across provinces. The integrated SDM-SNA approach provides a novel perspective for understanding the complexity of carbon governance in large economies and offers a flexible framework that can be adapted to other national or subnational settings.